Security teams face growing staffing volatility, with more call-offs and coverage gaps — a trend now spreading to retail, hospitality, logistics, and other service industries.
Growth strategist Eric Galuppo explains how longstanding reliability challenges in private security have intensified — offering early warning signs for the broader U.S. labor market.
Across the U.S., service businesses are experiencing rising unpredictability in attendance, engagement, and short-tenure turnover. While hiring pressures have eased since their pandemic peak, day-to-day reliability problems continue to disrupt operations in industries ranging from retail and hospitality to logistics and home health.
Workforce analysts say one industry saw this shift coming long before everyone else: private security. According to growth strategist Eric Galuppo, the reliability crisis now spreading across the country mirrors patterns the security sector has experienced for more than a decade.
And that makes the security industry an early-indicator market for the U.S. service economy — a warning that broader instability is likely to intensify before it improves.
Security as a Predictor of What Comes Next
Labor economists often watch private security because it reacts quickly to changes in worker behavior. The industry’s staffing model — low barriers to entry, high turnover, irregular schedules, and stress-heavy client demands — exposes early signs of national labor trends.
“Security has always been one of the first sectors to reveal how frontline workers are changing their expectations and their commitment levels,” Galuppo said. “When reliability shifts nationally, security feels it first.”
This predictive quality is why the sector’s current instability is drawing attention far beyond its own borders.
The Current Breakdown Reveals a Bigger National Trend
Recent data from ASIS International and the Security Industry Association show:
· Turnover rates regularly exceeding 100%
· Rising same-day call-offs
· Supervisors and rovers deployed daily to fill posts
· Scheduling teams overwhelmed by constant shift changes
These symptoms — once viewed as security-specific — now mirror what is happening across the larger service economy.
· Retail is seeing escalating absenteeism despite easing hiring pressure. The National Retail Federation confirms that unpredictable attendance remains one of the top operational challenges for store managers nationwide.
· Hospitality reports new churn spikes and inconsistent attendance during peak hours, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association.
· Home health and direct-care agencies increasingly struggle with early quits and engagement decline. PHI National’s 2024 report found record instability among direct-care workers.
A workforce pattern that began inside security is now spreading outward — a trend reflected across multiple national datasets.
Why Stability Is Breaking Down Across the Service Economy
Experts point to several structural forces that are reshaping worker behavior nationwide:
· Burnout from constant schedule fluctuations
· Competition from gig-economy work, offering instant income and flexible hours
· Low engagement across many frontline roles
· Higher customer expectations that increase workplace stress
These pressures compound, creating what workforce economists describe as a “volatility loop” — once instability begins, it reinforces itself.
A labor economist from the National Bureau of Economic Research noted that “even as job openings fall, day-to-day reliability doesn’t automatically improve. Burnout and disengagement remain higher than before the pandemic, and they predict attendance patterns more accurately than hiring data.”
The Early-Indicator Effect: Why Security Feels It First
Security firms report the earliest and most severe symptoms:
· Acute unbillable overtime (UBOT) pressure
· Supervisors covering posts at overtime rates
· Higher workers’ compensation exposure
· Client dissatisfaction tied to inconsistent staffing
· Margin erosion caused by schedule volatility
Galuppo, who has spent more than a decade working with security company executives and owners, said these issues are not isolated. “What security owners are feeling today is often what other service industries feel 12 to 24 months later.”
Security’s operational model magnifies instability early — revealing trends before they appear in the broader labor market.
Other Industries Are Beginning to Mirror These Patterns
Service industries with similar workforce structures are now experiencing the same pressures:
· Hotels: More no-shows and new-hire drop-offs as reported by the American Hotel & Lodging Association.
· Retail: Lower reliability despite adequate applicant flow, according to the National Retail Federation’s operational workforce surveys.
· Logistics and delivery: Burnout-based call-offs and short-tenure churn, highlighted in recent UPS and last-mile workforce analyses.
· Home health: Missed shifts triggering service disruptions, as documented by PHI National and the U.S. Home Care Association.
Workforce analysts at Deloitte’s Global Human Capital Trends report observe that these similarities indicate a structural shift in labor behavior — not a temporary post-pandemic adjustment.
A Broader Warning for the U.S. Economy
Some labor advocates believe turnover rates may ease as hiring cools. But most economists agree that reliability volatility is likely to persist regardless of broader hiring conditions. Engagement remains lower, stress remains higher, and workers have more alternatives than ever before.
If private security is indeed an early-indicator industry, then the current instability may preview what the rest of the U.S. service economy will continue to face over the next 12–18 months:
· unpredictable staffing
· higher operational strain
· tighter margins
· rising client dissatisfaction
· inconsistent service delivery
The security industry’s present may be the service economy’s future — and the signals are already visible.
Conclusion: Security Foreshadows a New Labor Reality
The reliability crisis emerging across the U.S. service sector first appeared — and intensified — inside private security. Its early warning signs are now visible across retail, hospitality, home health, and logistics.
As hiring pressure normalizes but reliability volatility increases, the security industry provides a preview of the structural workforce challenges that could shape the next phase of the U.S. economy.
For businesses dependent on consistent frontline labor, predictability — not headcount — is becoming the critical measure of operational stability.
