Using publicly available biographical information on 55 Hamas suicide attacks from 2001-2004, the first round of data has been acquired and completed. In analyzing the internal model, all components were found
to be within acceptable ranges for individual item reliability, internal consistency and discriminate validity.
In the external model, with a total R2 contribution of 0.43, the four factors found most important in the recruitment of suicide bombers are:
1. Religious influences and justification R2 = 0.177
2. Individual frustration/aggression drives R2 = 0.114
3. Individual economic and employment R2 = 0.071
4. Political motivations and pressures R2 = 0.048
While the total value of R2 = 0.43 is disappointing from an engineering perspective, it is acceptable from a social science perspective, and still represents 66% explanatory power.
This model suggests that religion, individual frustration, individual economics and political motivations are the largest recruitment factors of suicide terror, which further suggest that they are the most important motivating factors. A policy maker could decide on this basis to emphasize policies which promote moderate Islamic clerics, offer alternative and more constructive outlets for individual frustrations, and push towards a long-term political solution to the conflict. In contrast, policies whose motivating factor did not score as highly, such as attempting to dismantle the terrorist social network, or externally influencing Palestinian society to be less praiseful of suicide attackers, might be reconsidered as ineffectual in preventing suicide attacks.
Similarly, this analysis could be used to better understand existing policies. For example, the Israeli policy of targeted leader assassination is aimed primarily at dismantling the terrorist organizational structure. These results found that the terrorist network is a relatively minor contributor to suicide attacks. As such, while the assassination policy may be continued, policy-makers might understand more clearly the minimal impact it seems to have on suicide attacks.
