Betting for the first time can be overwhelming. You look at the numbers next to the teams and it’s like reading a foreign language. But learning how to interpret betting odds is not hard. Odds provide two pieces of information: the likelihood of the event happening and what that bet will pay back to you.
Three Different Styles of Odds
Odds can be shown in three styles (or formats) depending on what betting shop you use. There is the American style which looks like +150 and -200. Decimal odds look pretty (decorated) as numbers like 2.50 and 1.65. Fractional odds look like that old slash format from the days of yore: 5/1 or 2/5.
The different styles mean the same thing. American odds with a minus sign tell you how much you have to bet to win $100 whilst the plus style tells you how much you will win if you pay $100. -150 means if you pay $150 you will win $100; +150 means that $100 will earn you $150. Decimal odds show you how much you will receive if you pay a specified amount. Fractional odds show how much you will win in proportion to your bet.
What the Odds Represent
Odds represent the probability of an event happening but never simply represent the statistical likelihood of an event happening. Bookmakers add their vig or margin making it viable to operate a betting shop. That makes the odds less favorable to players. Low odds indicate a high probability of an event happening like a team at -300 since they will win most of their games. High odds indicate an underdog bet (long shot) that will pay if it wins.
Winning players generally select odds suppliers who show the information clearly and have good margins across different styles and types of bets. If you’re a newbie, Nerobet has good odds layouts and can provide assistance to budding players trying to learn the ropes before they start betting.
Implied probability is what odds reflect. Use decimal odds of 2.00 to illustrate how to calculate it. Divide 1 by 2.00. You get 0.50 which means there is a 50% chance the event will happen. Lower odds like 4.00 show a 25% chance of an event happening. You can use the same calculation for American and fractional odds, but they involve different calculations.
Reading Movements and Identifying Value
Odds change. They go up and down depending on different factors like injuries or anything else that affects the probability of a particular event. Sharp players (skilled players who understand strategies) place their bets quickly and that causes immediate changes. Public money (the money that comes from casual players betting on public or favorite teams) causes different patterns of movement in odds.
Knowing how to read movements in odds shows you which way the sharp money is going. (The money that comes from skilled players who see value in specific bets). If money comes in on one side of a bet and not on the other after an event, that shows they assessed value correctly. Public betting patterns may cause lines to move out of sympathy with percentage.
Value reflects a difference between your idea of the probability of an event happening and what the odds show. If someone thinks something has a 40% chance of happening but the odds only show a 30% probability, there is value. The only problem with this situation is being honest enough with yourself not to confuse fanciful thinking with a proper assessment of the likelihood of an event.
Common Mistakes Made by New Players
Chasing parlays is one of the most common mistakes new players make. Chasing long-shot bets comes in all shapes and sizes. Five-team parlays to turn ten bucks into a cool grand happen pretty regularly but good luck hitting those kinds of bets!
New players also place bets without a proper understanding of how the vig will affect their bets over time. Chasing -110 lines on both sides of a market may seem innocent enough but think about the number of $10 bets that show up on betting lines across Las Vegas (and hundreds/thousands of other places). The extra $10 may not seem like much when someone is just placing a single bet but over time it requires someone to be right over 52% of the time with their predictions just to break even.
Another rookie mistake is to bet on favorite players and teams instead of looking for value in odds. Many new players allow emotions to rule their betting decisions and forget that the purpose of betting is not to be right about who is going to win but to find opportunities where wins make sense given a player’s assessment of what might happen.
Practical Advice for Implementing Strategies
Use sports betting as a strategic game instead of a casino game; the best way to do this is to start small. The best way to learn about how odds work in real life is to practice paper trading (betting) and this exposes people to different styles and might show them patterns when it comes to events they prefer rather than others, or when it comes to their own style of play.
Keeping records may sound boring and something that other people do but having a good, searchable database that displays profits/losses associated with all styles and types of bets will provide more information than people think. Patterns emerge when the information is stored; maybe certain teams and types of events are associated with losses in comparison to others, just as people may have certain types of events, they enjoy that lead them to wins.
Shopping for value (and displaying loyalty by only placing bets on one supplier) might sound like bad advice but odds vary depending on who you place your bets with. The difference between -110 and -105 might not seem like much when you’re placing one or two bets. Think about this on a bigger scale with hundreds or thousands of bets over a time period; that difference will be worth something.
Moving Forward With Confidence
Odds don’t seem tricky once someone understands the underlying gist of all betting markets: simple maths instead of some formula the betting houses came up with to match your bets to outcomes. Winning consistently comes down to recognizing patterns, learning how to apply your own odds before placing bets, and then placing smart bets rather than stupid decisions based on emotions rather than fanciful thinking hoping that good outcomes may arise from some lost money.
Have winning or losing records and view your bets with different attitudes; treat betting like an enjoyable pastime and you may have lucrative experiences; treat it like a real job with dedication and watch the cash roll in.
