Uganda government reveals reason for worrying rise in COVID-19 cases

Uganda is quickly approaching its 2,000 case-management potential at 616 reported cases as of June 7. Positive cases of COVID-19 in the country today increased to 616 after confirmation of 23 more cases from 2,494 samples tested yesterday. Upon recovery from coronavirus disease 92 people were discharged.

Seven of the new cases are truck drivers entering the country using the South Sudan border with Elegu, the Tanzanian border with Mutukula and the Rwandan border with Mirama Hills.

Another example is an Elegu security officer, while the other is a health worker, which increases the number of health workers infected to 18. According to the Ministry of Health, the other 14 cases were from contacts to previously positive cases and contacts from districts Kyotera, Adjumani, Tororo and Amuru.

Dr Monica Musenero, an epidemiologist and senior presidential advisor on epidemics, says they trained the health system to handle a maximum of 2,000 COVID-19 cases before when the nation locked down in March. Health experts and officials have now voiced concern about the increasing spread of the virus among the community, even before the country lifts the lockdown completely.

“Right now we have cases coming from the community and this is not going to get better because people are no longer adhering to preventive measures like washing hands, wearing masks and even social distancing,” Musenero said.

While the Ministry of Health insists that all cases reported among truck driver contacts are under quarantine, the increase in such cases and those reported in districts such as Kampala that are not on anywhere near the border is worrying. Community cases have now risen to 121, with the latest 14 new contact and alert cases.

Musenero blames population complacency for the rise in the Ugandan cases. She says people no longer fear the disease and have given up wearing masks and social distancing.

“We held down the virus with our measures to prepare the country so that we’re better ready by the time cases come. Ready as the health system but also ready as the population. At the moment, the population doesn’t seem to be with us so much. They misinterpreted or we didn’t explain somehow. We don’t know. They assume the epidemic is over with the way they are behaving. They are rejecting every kind of measure we tell them and that will nullify our preparation.” Musenero said.

“All their sacrifices will be lost…The lockdown was not meant to be for too long but on our side, we’re moving forward, the population is moving in the reverse. Ugandans believe…no matter what you tell them, they didn’t want to hear that cases are going to rise. But I tell you that cases are going to rise but how far they rise will depend on the cooperation of the population.” she added.

The first measures were issued on March 18, 2020, while the first case was reported on March 21, 2020, Uganda was among a few countries in the world that instituted lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the disease even before a first case was confirmed.

According to Musenero, while the health system used the lockdown to prepare itself, when there is no change in behaviour, the Ugandans who were supposed to benefit from it will see no benefits. She says people need to go back to the fundamentals of preventing this disease and begin wearing masks, washing hands and social distancing.

Health ministry data show that the level of awareness and fear of COVID-19 was as high as 60 per cent at the time Uganda received its first case. Today, in some parts of the country, fear of the disease among the population has dropped to as low as 20 per cent.

Musenero says that at the moment Uganda has the ability to handle only 2,000 confirmed cases with 120 intensive care unit ( ICU) beds at a given time for handling severe cases. She says if people choose to disregard social distancing and avoid wearing masks, she says another lockdown may be the way to delay the disease spread.

“People have taken masks more as a requirement than a protective equipment. You see, you don’t get out of your country naked. The [virus] is in the air, it is from people talking. The population is looking at it as if it is being forced and they are looking for all excuses. The disease is rising, it is entering the community. Now we need to own the response together. Of course, the alternative is for government to clamp down lockdown again. I hope the population can self-police and we move together. We prepared to handle at the peak maximum of 2000 cases at ago. So we cannot afford to be taking in too many.” she said.

Dr Diana Atwine, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Health, says the country should expect to see the worst in the weeks to come.

“To us in Uganda, the epidemic has started because you remember we first kept it at bay, we first kept it out of the country by sealing off the border, by stopping the transportation…Our region is experiencing high level of infections and somehow people are still moving in and out of the country. We’re now starting to see some more cases that are coming and are reported here and there. For us, this is the beginning and we still have some good journey to move.” Atwine said.

The number of recorded cases and deaths in Covid-19 is on the increase across the African continent. According to the WHO Africa region, an average of 1,500 cases are registered each day, compared with 500 cases two months ago. The number of confirmed cases in Africa as of June 6 is 185,996, with 5,082 deaths, with 83,432 recoveries.

Dr Atwine says while the lockdown has played a major role in lowering infection rates, Ugandans’ complacency could contribute to disease spreading. She says this is actually a matter of concern for them.

“It concerns us because we know that one person getting infected and if that person gets in the community it doesn’t only stop at that person. He will infect as many people and those many people will infect as many and that is how the infection spreads like wildfire. One person can infect 100 people even more within the shortest time. The best is really to be cautious and be vigilant, to observe what we have set…I still see a lot of people walking with masks on the chin, in business areas you see business is normal.” said Atwine.

While the health officials blame Ugandans for the rise in cases, there is a section of Ugandans who blame the rise in cases on President Yoweri Museveni. When the country was locked up in March, Museveni was severely asked to better manage the cross-border truck drivers, but instead asked “Ugandans to swallow their anger,” saying the country couldn’t afford to lock out truckers because they were an importing and exporting country.

Samples would be taken from truckers who would then proceed their journeys and only tracked down if their results return as positive. Government claimed that the truck drivers were only allowed to stop at designated points but it later turned out that the drivers were providing the government with false information.

Uganda has not recorded any death associated with the pandemic yet, but Musenero predicts that if people don’t take the disease a little more seriously than they are now, this record too could be broken.

“So many false things are being shared on social media about this disease and Ugandans are taking in everything. Contrary to what people say that the disease does not kill, it does kill. The only reason Uganda has not reported cases is because the disease had not entered the communities of Uganda. But with the way cases are rising, this situation is about to change. More people will fall sick, the health system will be overwhelmed and deaths will start being reported,” she explained.

Uganda Red Cross Society (URCS) passed out its last batch of 84 trained personnel on Friday this week to handle safe and dignified burials of coronavirus victims (SDB).