The 2025–26 NBA season is lining up as a real “leap year” for certain young players. Breakouts don’t happen because of vibes or viral clips—they happen when efficiency trends, role changes, minutes, and skill growth finally sync up. Using recent performance indicators and what teams are quietly preparing for, this article spotlights the guys with the clearest runway to jump a tier: Alex Sarr, Amen Thompson, Zaccharie Risacher, Toumani Camara, Jaden Ivey, Matas Buzelis, and Alperen Şengün. The goal is simple: focus on development you can actually measure, not hype you can’t cash.
What “breakout” really means for 2025–26
A breakout season isn’t automatically “20 points a night.” It’s a noticeable shift in status: from prospect to pillar, from role player to game-plan problem. The biggest predictors are repeatable: rising usage without collapsing efficiency, extra minutes earned by trust, and advanced indicators (rim pressure, 3-point quality, defensive versatility) that usually jump before the box score does. Players who end seasons on hot efficiency stretches, or who enter the year with a cleaned-up depth chart, are the classic candidates. The 2025–26 pool is especially interesting because several teams are rebuilding around youth, while others are forced into new hierarchies by injuries or trades. Those pressure points create opportunity, and opportunity is what turns a good season into a breakout one.
Alex Sarr — Washington’s two-way launchpad
Alex Sarr already looks like the kind of big who “breaks out” in stages: first defense, then offense, then the full package. As a rookie and the No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft, he averaged 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 67 games, earned NBA All-Rookie honors, and closed his season above 15 points per game over the final month. Washington is handing him the starting-center job with no veteran roadblocks, which matters because volume plus freedom is how young bigs explode. His value also isn’t just scoring—he’s shown rim protection, switchability, and early stretch-five comfort. The Wizards don’t need him to be perfect; they need him to be central, and that kind of role accelerates growth fast. If his sophomore year keeps the late-season scoring rhythm while his defense stays steady, he’s a clean bet to look like a different tier of player by spring.
Amen Thompson — a bigger role, a bigger stat line
Amen Thompson’s breakout case is built on athletic dominance meeting real ball-handling responsibility. After averaging 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.3 assists last season, he’s now positioned for a workload spike because Houston’s lineup has shifted and he’s inheriting more primary-creator duties. When a guard-forward hybrid rebounds like a big, defends like a stopper, and starts running offense, the ceiling rises in a hurry. You can already see it in flashes: transition pressure, weak-side timing, and a handle that keeps getting tighter. If his jumper becomes merely “respected,” defenders can’t sag, and his downhill game becomes brutal. With more control over possessions and more trust late in games, his box score could swell across every category at once.
Zaccharie Risacher — the quiet rookie turning loud
Zaccharie Risacher’s rookie year came in two very different chapters. Early on, across his first 41 games, the 6-foot-8 forward put up 11 points per game, with 41.3% shooting from the field and 30.2% from three. Then he settled, and in his final 34 contests he popped to 14.4 points per game while hitting 50.8% overall and 40.7% from deep. He turned 20 in April, so that late-season surge is basically a teenager learning NBA timing in real time. Atlanta drafted him first overall to be a long-term wing engine; the back half of his season shows the shot profile and confidence finally aligning. If the “final-34-games” version of Risacher shows up for a full year, you’re looking at a two-way wing producing starter numbers without needing a perfect system around him.
Toumani Camara — defense first, scoring nex
Toumani Camara has already broken out defensively; now the offense is catching up. Acquired in September 2023, the 6-foot-8 wing followed a strong rookie defensive showing by earning All-Defensive Second Team honors in year two. After the All-Star break, he hit 40.3% from three, drilled 2.3 threes per game, and averaged 13.8 points per night. Portland’s roster moves opened the door for more touches, and the front office clearly believes in him: he signed a 4-year, $81,000,000 extension with an $20,250,000 average annual salary. That kind of money doesn’t go to “nice role players.” It goes to future starters who can tilt games. Camara’s path is simple: keep the defense elite, keep the three-point stroke near that post-break level, and the points will rise naturally with attempts.
Jaden Ivey — the burst still hasn’t peaked
Jaden Ivey was trending toward a breakout even before a tough break. Prior to a broken fibula ending his 2024–25 season, he was averaging 17.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. Detroit remains committed to the Cunningham-Ivey backcourt pairing, and Ivey’s speed creates easy offense in ways most young guards can’t replicate. The next leap is about tightening the half-court: cleaner reads, better shot balance, and turning that straight-line chaos into controlled pressure. If his shooting efficiency climbs, he stops being a “scary athlete” and becomes a steady No. 2 option. Health returns the runway; refinement decides how far he flies.
Matas Buzelis — Chicago’s youth movement centerpiece
Chicago has cleared the stage for Matas Buzelis to try something bigger than “promising rookie.” Once he cracked the starting lineup midway through last season, he finished with 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. At 6’10”, with real creation feel, he’s stepping into a Bulls roster that traded away veteran usage and needs a new offensive identity. That environment is perfect for a sophomore leap because he won’t be punished for experimenting. His blend of size, touch, and perimeter upside makes him the kind of player who can go from “interesting” to “nightly problem” fast. More steady usage, more late-clock reps, and a bump in playmaking responsibility are all realistic in Chicago’s new timeline.
Alperen Şengün — already great, still climbing
Alperen Şengün is a slightly different breakout type: not unknown, but ready to jump from star to borderline superstar. Last year he averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.2 steals, and Houston rewarded him with a five-year, $185,000,000 extension. His 2025–26 base salary is $33,944,954, with that same number as his cap hit and dead cap value. Those numbers scream franchise hub. He already runs offense like a point center; the next level is refining spacing reads and punishing doubles faster. With Houston adding veteran talent around him, his efficiency could rise even if his usage stays similar. If the defense takes even a modest step forward, he shifts from “All-Star lock” to “All-NBA threat.”
How these breakouts translate to fantasy value
Breakout trajectories matter just as much in real hoops as they do in fantasy basketball draft rooms. Minutes and role clarity are gold; late-season efficiency surges are the cheat code. Sarr and Buzelis bring the classic sophomore spike appeal—more touches, more freedom, better comfort. Thompson can explode across categories because rebounds and defense inflate fantasy floors. Ivey is the “health + usage” upside bet. Camara’s two-way profile makes him a sneaky multi-cat riser, especially if the offense leans on him more. Şengün is the safe-ceiling hybrid: already elite, but priced before his final leap. The most valuable picks are usually the guys whose roles are expanding *and* whose efficiency trends already point upward.
Final read: development over noise
If you’re looking for the surprise stars of 2025–26, these seven are the cleanest bets because the math matches the film. Sarr has the defensive anchor role and rising scoring trend. Thompson is stepping into heavier creation duties with a stat-stuffing base already in place. Risacher’s second-half rookie efficiency screams “next step.” Camara is paid and positioned like a future two-way cornerstone. Ivey’s pre-injury line shows he was already halfway to the leap. Buzelis is walking into a rebuild that needs him to be bold. Şengün is locked into a max-level future and still improving. None of that is hype. It’s the blueprint for how breakouts happen, and 2025–26 is set up to reward the players ready to seize bigger jobs.
