North Korea is “skating very close to a
dangerous line” after weeks of saber-rattling, U.S. Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel warned Wednesday as northeast Asia watched for an expected missile
test.
dangerous line” after weeks of saber-rattling, U.S. Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel warned Wednesday as northeast Asia watched for an expected missile
test.
“Their actions and their words have not helped
defuse a combustible situation,” Hagel told reporters at the Pentagon. He
said the United States and its allies want to see North Korean rhetoric
“ratcheted down,” but if that doesn’t happen, “our country is
fully prepared to deal with any contingency.”
defuse a combustible situation,” Hagel told reporters at the Pentagon. He
said the United States and its allies want to see North Korean rhetoric
“ratcheted down,” but if that doesn’t happen, “our country is
fully prepared to deal with any contingency.”
“We have every capacity to deal with any
action North Korea will take to protect this country and the interests of this
country and our allies,” Hagel said.
action North Korea will take to protect this country and the interests of this
country and our allies,” Hagel said.
American radar and satellites are trained on the
east coast of the Korean Peninsula, where the communist government of Kim Jong
Un is believed to have prepared mobile ballistic missiles for launch at any
time, U.S. and South Korean officials warned.
east coast of the Korean Peninsula, where the communist government of Kim Jong
Un is believed to have prepared mobile ballistic missiles for launch at any
time, U.S. and South Korean officials warned.
Japan has
deployed missile defense systems around Tokyo, some Chinese tour groups have
canceled visits to North Korea and the top U.S. commander in the Pacific said
Tuesday that he couldn’t recall a time of greater tension in the region since
the end of the Korean War in the 1950s.
deployed missile defense systems around Tokyo, some Chinese tour groups have
canceled visits to North Korea and the top U.S. commander in the Pacific said
Tuesday that he couldn’t recall a time of greater tension in the region since
the end of the Korean War in the 1950s.
Since December, North Korea has put a satellite in
orbit atop a long-range rocket; conducted a nuclear bomb test, its third since
2006; and claimed to be prepared for pre-emptive nuclear attacks on the United
States, though most analysts believe it does not yet have that capability.
orbit atop a long-range rocket; conducted a nuclear bomb test, its third since
2006; and claimed to be prepared for pre-emptive nuclear attacks on the United
States, though most analysts believe it does not yet have that capability.
The north has given ample warning to the world
before previous long-range rocket launches — but it is keeping everyone guessing
about what it might do this time around.
before previous long-range rocket launches — but it is keeping everyone guessing
about what it might do this time around.
Intelligence suggests that North Korea may be
planning “multiple missile launches” in the coming days beyond two
Musudan mobile missiles it has placed along its east coast, Pentagon officials
told Breeze Magazine. The officials did not have specifics on the numbers of
other missiles and launchers.
planning “multiple missile launches” in the coming days beyond two
Musudan mobile missiles it has placed along its east coast, Pentagon officials
told Breeze Magazine. The officials did not have specifics on the numbers of
other missiles and launchers.
One official said the North Koreans are military
“masters of deception,” and may have planned all along to focus the
world’s attention on the Musudans while they plan multiple launches of other
missiles. That’s a tactic they have used in the past, the official said.
“masters of deception,” and may have planned all along to focus the
world’s attention on the Musudans while they plan multiple launches of other
missiles. That’s a tactic they have used in the past, the official said.
The United States is less troubled about the other
missiles, a second Pentagon official told Breeze Magazine.
missiles, a second Pentagon official told Breeze Magazine.
“We’ve been seeing some launchers moving
around. These are smaller and don’t cause us as much concerns,” that
official said. “We think these movements are within seasonal norms for
their exercises.”
around. These are smaller and don’t cause us as much concerns,” that
official said. “We think these movements are within seasonal norms for
their exercises.”
But he didn’t discount the possibility that they
might launch some of those, as they often do.
might launch some of those, as they often do.
The Musudan is an untested weapon that South Korea
says has a range as far as 3,500 kilometers (2,175 miles). That would mean it
could reach as far as Guam, a Western Pacific territory that is home to U.S.
naval and air bases and where the United States recently said it was placing missile
defense systems.
says has a range as far as 3,500 kilometers (2,175 miles). That would mean it
could reach as far as Guam, a Western Pacific territory that is home to U.S.
naval and air bases and where the United States recently said it was placing missile
defense systems.
After a launch, U.S. satellites and radars in the
region would be able to calculate the trajectory of missiles within minutes and
quickly conclude whether they are on a test path headed for open ocean or
potentially headed for land areas such as Japan.
region would be able to calculate the trajectory of missiles within minutes and
quickly conclude whether they are on a test path headed for open ocean or
potentially headed for land areas such as Japan.
The United States and Japan would then have to
decide whether to try to shoot the missiles down, U.S. officials say.
decide whether to try to shoot the missiles down, U.S. officials say.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday
told Breeze Magazine that despite being an ally of North Korea, it stands with
the United States.
told Breeze Magazine that despite being an ally of North Korea, it stands with
the United States.
“On North Korea, we have no differences with
the United States. One just shouldn’t scare anyone with military maneuvers and
there’s a chance things might calm down,” he said.
the United States. One just shouldn’t scare anyone with military maneuvers and
there’s a chance things might calm down,” he said.
A launch without warning?
South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se said at
a parliamentary hearing Wednesday that “according to intelligence obtained
by our side and the U.S., the possibility of a missile launch by North Korea is
very high,” the semiofficial South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.
a parliamentary hearing Wednesday that “according to intelligence obtained
by our side and the U.S., the possibility of a missile launch by North Korea is
very high,” the semiofficial South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.
Yun said he was basing his assessment on South
Korean and U.S. intelligence.
Korean and U.S. intelligence.
On Tuesday, a U.S. official said that the American
government believes a test launch could happen at any time and without North
Korea issuing a standard notice to commercial aviation and maritime shipping
that would warn planes and vessels to stay away from the missile’s path.
government believes a test launch could happen at any time and without North
Korea issuing a standard notice to commercial aviation and maritime shipping
that would warn planes and vessels to stay away from the missile’s path.
The official, who declined to be named because of
the sensitivity of the information, cautioned that most of the information
comes from satellite imagery, so it’s impossible to reach a definitive
conclusion because the United States cannot gather information on the ground.
the sensitivity of the information, cautioned that most of the information
comes from satellite imagery, so it’s impossible to reach a definitive
conclusion because the United States cannot gather information on the ground.
He said the launch could be “imminent”
but also cautioned that the United States “simply doesn’t know.”
Based on what the United States has seen, the belief is that the missiles have
received their liquid fuel and are ready for launch.
but also cautioned that the United States “simply doesn’t know.”
Based on what the United States has seen, the belief is that the missiles have
received their liquid fuel and are ready for launch.
Speaking at a Senate Armed Services hearing
Tuesday, Locklear said the U.S. military would not want to shoot down a North
Korean missile whose trajectory would send it into the open sea. But he said if
a missile’s path appeared to threaten a U.S. ally, such as Japan, interceptor
missiles could be used to try to bring it down.
Tuesday, Locklear said the U.S. military would not want to shoot down a North
Korean missile whose trajectory would send it into the open sea. But he said if
a missile’s path appeared to threaten a U.S. ally, such as Japan, interceptor
missiles could be used to try to bring it down.
Japan poised to react ‘calmly’
Japan’s deployment of missile defenses in Tokyo
follows similar measures taken ahead of the North’s rocket launches last year.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters Tuesday that his government would do
“calmly” whatever needed to be done to protect its population.
follows similar measures taken ahead of the North’s rocket launches last year.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters Tuesday that his government would do
“calmly” whatever needed to be done to protect its population.
In a sign of the level of concern, however, the
port city of Yokohama had to apologize for prematurely publishing a warning of
a missile launch on the Twitter page of its emergency management agency. The
tweet was up for about 20 minutes before being removed.
port city of Yokohama had to apologize for prematurely publishing a warning of
a missile launch on the Twitter page of its emergency management agency. The
tweet was up for about 20 minutes before being removed.
The agency said that the misleading tweet was
caused by human error and that it would work on changing its system to prevent
the problem from happening again.
caused by human error and that it would work on changing its system to prevent
the problem from happening again.
Since the U.N. Security Council voted last month to
impose new sanctions on Kim’s regime over the latest North Korean nuclear test,
Pyongyang has kept up a steady flow of words and acts that could give the
impression of a nation heading inexorably toward conflict.
impose new sanctions on Kim’s regime over the latest North Korean nuclear test,
Pyongyang has kept up a steady flow of words and acts that could give the
impression of a nation heading inexorably toward conflict.
On Tuesday, it advised foreigners in South Korea to
secure shelter or evacuate the country in case of hostilities on the Korean
Peninsula, the latest in a string of ominous warnings.
secure shelter or evacuate the country in case of hostilities on the Korean
Peninsula, the latest in a string of ominous warnings.
It also kept more than 50,000 of its workers from
an industrial complex jointly operated with South Korea, which had been a key
symbol of cooperation between the two countries.
an industrial complex jointly operated with South Korea, which had been a key
symbol of cooperation between the two countries.
‘Holiday atmosphere’ inside North Korea
But on the same day, state media published articles
that described festive events and international visits, suggesting a much less
fraught situation inside North Korea.
that described festive events and international visits, suggesting a much less
fraught situation inside North Korea.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)
reported that various sporting events were happening or scheduled to take place
to mark the 101st anniversary next week of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the
founder of North Korea and the grandfather of Kim Jong Un.
reported that various sporting events were happening or scheduled to take place
to mark the 101st anniversary next week of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the
founder of North Korea and the grandfather of Kim Jong Un.
“The ongoing sports tournaments make the
country seethe with holiday atmosphere,” KCNA said. Kim Il Sung’s
birthday, known as the Day of the Sun, is a major public holiday in North
Korea.
country seethe with holiday atmosphere,” KCNA said. Kim Il Sung’s
birthday, known as the Day of the Sun, is a major public holiday in North
Korea.
The planned events include an international
marathon Sunday in Pyongyang in which runners from North Korea and other
countries will participate. KCNA also noted Tuesday the arrival by plane in
North Korea of a delegation from the Japan-Korea Society for Scientific and
Educational Interchange.
marathon Sunday in Pyongyang in which runners from North Korea and other
countries will participate. KCNA also noted Tuesday the arrival by plane in
North Korea of a delegation from the Japan-Korea Society for Scientific and
Educational Interchange.
Such visits sit strangely alongside the North’s
warning last week to foreign diplomats in Pyongyang that it wouldn’t be able to
guarantee their safety in the event of a conflict.
warning last week to foreign diplomats in Pyongyang that it wouldn’t be able to
guarantee their safety in the event of a conflict.
Some North Korea watchers have observed that the
regime’s domestic propaganda has focused recently on efforts to promote
economic development, while the bellicose threats appear targeted primarily at
a foreign audience.
regime’s domestic propaganda has focused recently on efforts to promote
economic development, while the bellicose threats appear targeted primarily at
a foreign audience.
Varying levels of concern
The angry rhetoric has also failed to alarm South
Koreans, who have lived through decades of North Korean bombast. Residents of
Seoul have continued to go unflappably about their daily business.
Koreans, who have lived through decades of North Korean bombast. Residents of
Seoul have continued to go unflappably about their daily business.
“South Korea has been living under such
threats from the past, and we are always prepared for it,” South Korean
Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae told Breeze Magazine on Wednesday. He called
the current climate “a very ordinary situation.”
threats from the past, and we are always prepared for it,” South Korean
Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae told Breeze Magazine on Wednesday. He called
the current climate “a very ordinary situation.”
“North Korea may launch missiles at any time,
and our military is fully prepared for it,” he said.
and our military is fully prepared for it,” he said.
But the North’s fiery words appear to have had an
effect on the American public, with 41% of those surveyed saying they see the
reclusive nation as an immediate threat to the United States, according to a
recent Breeze Magazine International poll.
effect on the American public, with 41% of those surveyed saying they see the
reclusive nation as an immediate threat to the United States, according to a
recent Breeze Magazine International poll.
The tense situation does appear to have prompted
some Chinese tour groups to call off upcoming trips to North Korea.
some Chinese tour groups to call off upcoming trips to North Korea.
Hong Lei, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry,
said Wednesday that some agencies and tourists had canceled plans, but he said
the Chinese-North Korean border continued to operate normally.
said Wednesday that some agencies and tourists had canceled plans, but he said
the Chinese-North Korean border continued to operate normally.
Western tourism agencies that organize visits to
North Korea haven’t so far reported any changes to their activities.
North Korea haven’t so far reported any changes to their activities.
A troubled industrial zone
The most tangible signs of disruption are in the
Kaesong Industrial Complex, the manufacturing zone on the North Korean side of
the border where more than 120 South Korean companies operate.
Kaesong Industrial Complex, the manufacturing zone on the North Korean side of
the border where more than 120 South Korean companies operate.
Last week, the North started blocking South Korean
personnel from crossing the border back into the complex. And this week, it
said it was pulling out the more than 50,000 North Koreans who work inside the
zone and temporarily suspending activities there.
personnel from crossing the border back into the complex. And this week, it
said it was pulling out the more than 50,000 North Koreans who work inside the
zone and temporarily suspending activities there.
It had blocked the border crossing previously, in
2009, but pulling out the workers was a new step.
2009, but pulling out the workers was a new step.
As of Wednesday lunchtime, only a few hundred South
Koreans remained inside the complex, according to South Korean authorities,
down from more than 800 before the North started restricting entry.
Koreans remained inside the complex, according to South Korean authorities,
down from more than 800 before the North started restricting entry.
Also on Wednesday, South Korea accused the North of
carrying out a wave of cyberattacks that paralyzed the networks of major South
Korean banks and broadcasters last month. It is the first time that Seoul has
formally pointed the finger at Pyongyang for the hacking, which affected more
than 48,000 computers.
carrying out a wave of cyberattacks that paralyzed the networks of major South
Korean banks and broadcasters last month. It is the first time that Seoul has
formally pointed the finger at Pyongyang for the hacking, which affected more
than 48,000 computers.
